Ma’ariv – March 26, 2010

"The People Support," By Ben Caspit

The Center for Middle East Peace in Washington, run by the billionaire Daniel Abraham, conducted in the past few weeks a public opinion poll in Israel. The results were published two days ago on the Center’s website. The findings were fascinating. The poll was done by Mina Zemach with a sample of 730 people, and the interesting part was the comparison between the positions of the general public and those of the Members of Knesset.

Dr. Zemach interviewed close to 100 Members of Knesset, anonymously, and mapped out precisely the support of MKs on a future peace agreement while comparing it to the level of support given by the general public.

The principles of the peace agreement presented to the public according to the poll:

• Two states, Israel the state of the Jewish people and Palestine the state of the Palestinian people
• Right of return only to Palestine
• The Palestinian state will be demilitarized
• Borders based on 67’ with land swaps, taking into consideration Israel's security needs, large settlement blocks stay under Israeli sovereignty.
• Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty, Arab neighborhoods to Palestine.
• The Old City within the walls without sovereignty and will be jointly administered by the United States, Israel and the Palestinians. The Holy Places will be under the same religious supervision as current arrangements (the Kotel will be under Israeli supervision and responsibility).

Here are some of the findings: this agreement has the support of 46 percent of the Members of Knesset compared to 67 percent of the public. 53 percent of the MKs oppose, 29 percent of the public oppose. Then Mina Zemach proceeded to upgrade the agreement, every time adding elements that improve the agreement in the eye’s of Israelis. When she added, “the United States would guarantee Israel’s security as a Jewish state” the public support increased from 63 to 67 percent. When she added a strong security fence will be built on the border line, support increased to 73 percent. When she added that the implementation of the agreement would be conditioned on the disarming of Hamas, support increased to 82 percent. When she added a defense treaty with the United States, support increased to 83 percent and etc. After all of these improvements the support among the MKs increased by only two percent – from 46 to 48 percent.

And another thing: the greatest discrepancy between the MKs and their voters was discovered in the Likud: 27 percent of Likud MKs supported the agreement compared to 50 percent support among Likud voters.

The main factor in the agreement that bothered the MKs was Jerusalem (44 percent), while that factor is much less dominant among the public. By the way, among the MKs of Kadima, 68 percent supported the agreement and 32 percent opposed. Labor and Meretz: full support. Shas: one-third support (who are they?), two-thirds opposed. Jewish Home and National Union: sweeping opposition. United Torah Judaism: half-half (!). Yisrael Beiteinu: 83 percent oppose, 17 percent support (Lieberman will catch them). What is no less worrying is Balad’s opposition to an agreement such as this (to a rate of two-thirds). They probably want a state for all its citizens. And the tragedy is that they are the only ones moving closer to their target, for the moment.

How can this paradox be explained? The poll checked what the public thinks and what its representatives think about the same package, and discovered a significant discrepancy.

The proposed solution is simple: the public wants and is ready to go for peace, but doesn’t believe that it’s relevant. There is no one to talk to, there is nothing to talk about, there is no deal on the table and peace is passé, so 90s. But the real drama unfolding before our eyes is that Barack Obama is bringing back the peace. He’ll put a deal on the table. He’ll create a partner. The American plan, which was published here months ago, is taking shape.

Obama is interested in precisely mapping out Bibi’s positions so he can place his bridging proposal on the table. It won’t be his proposal; it will be the entire world’s proposal. America, Europe, China, Russia, Africa, Japan, the Arab League. Everyone will sign it and only Benjamin Netanyahu will stand opposite, shivering in the wind, and will need to decide what to do. Once again the Americans are talking about a two year deadline, insisting again on the “borders first” approach and demonstrating that they are quite serious.

The ball is with Bibi. He will have to decide what he wants. Who he wants beside him. How he wants to be remembered. Does he have the internal strength to go for big moves? Highly unlikely. Netanyahu is like a wet noodle. Elusive, weak but that is his power. You can’t catch him, you can’t push him anywhere. On the other hand, there are those who think that Netanyahu’s weakness can be the lever to his strength. The only question is who will scare him more. Obama, who holds in his hands the keys to the Iranian nuclear issue or Eli Yishai, Avigdor Lieberman, his father and wife. It’s all, in the meantime, in his hands. Netanyahu’s hands.